Two years ago I published a bunch of diaries on Senate races, with elaborate graphs.
They're BAAAAACK!
Method:
1. I gathered polling data from Pollster.com and from brownsox's summaries. I only included polls in 2008.
2. I assigned the undecided in two ways: 60% to the challenger (per general practice) and 50-50. The first method is represented by solid boxes. The latter method by hollow dots.
3. I then added loess lines to all 4 series of boxes: Solid lines for the solid boxes, dotted lines for the hollow dots. Good descriptions of loess (aka local regression) are here (technical notes on local regression)
George McGovern is no right-wing puppet; in fact I consider him a founding father of the 'crash the gate' movement. Maine Congressman Tom Allen has tried to ride the coattails of the re-emergence of Progressive Politics during his Senate run, but has really not done the job. He's been beat up relentlessly on TV in Maine for his support of the EFCA, and has done a horrible job explaining his position. Now George McGovern is in the Wall Street Journal with an opinion piece that is spreading rapidly through Democratic circles in Maine. He basically dissects the EFCA bill and shows why Tom Allen's support of the measure is becoming a significant campaign liability.
My Party Should Respect Secret Union Ballots By GEORGE MCGOVERN
As a congressman, senator and one-time Democratic nominee for the presidency, I've participated in my share of vigorous public debates over issues of great consequence. And the public has been free to accept or reject the decisions I made when they walked into a ballot booth, drew the curtain and cast their vote. I didn't always win, but I always respected the process.
This ad ran against George Allen, Rick Santorum and Conrad Burns. All were defeated for reelection.
The same vote against giving our troops the body armor they needed that the ad criticizes was also cast by 17 Republican Senators seeking reelection this year:
Lamar Alexander (TN)
Saxby Chambliss (GA)
Thad Cochran (MS)
Norm Coleman (MN)
Susan Collins (ME)
John Cornyn (TX)
Elizabeth Dole (NC)
Mike Enzi (WY)
Lindsey Graham (SC)
Jim Inhofe (OK)
Mitch McConnell (KY)
Pat Roberts (KS)
Jeff Sessions (AL)
Gordon Smith (OR)
Ted Stevens (AK)
John Sununu (NH)
And not only that, but these Senators had all been elected or reelected just months before. That is, the Senate class of 2002, elected in November of that year, cast these votes in April of 2003, at the very beginning of their terms, and nearly six years away from having to face the voters for it.
They thought you'd forget. They needed you to forget.
But one thing they weren't counting on was the troops still being deployed and still fighting six years later.
But they are. And though some of these clowns have since tried to make amends, the fact remains that at the critical time, they put party politics over the lives of our troops, and voted against giving them the armor they needed.
They should all go down for it, and American voters should make a special point of sinking them for their cowardly votes that they hoped we'd forget.
These ads are just the way to do it, too. But they're not on the air.
They've been produced, as you can see. All they need are new tags to identify the 17 Republican Senators up for reelection this year who voted against giving our troops adequate body armor, and they're ready to go. They've been proven in the field, and you can see the impact they'd have right here before your very eyes.
But they're not on the air. And as far as I can tell, there are no plans to put them there.
Seventeen Republican Senators, some of them very, very vulnerable this year. What could we do with those seats in our hands?
Why aren't these ads on the air?
Big time Democrats, donors, and other convention goers: think on this, please. Use the time we spend together in Denver to remedy this.
Why aren't these ads on the air, and what can we do to change that?
Collins Watch snags this video. For those of you that have never heard Sen. Susan Collins speak, you're in for a treat of sorts. But I'm not sure what's worse: her speculative comments about John Edwards or the masturbatory nature of the on-air talent at the radio station:
So much for the "decorum" of the Senate. She also joins on the Evan Bayh for VP bandwagon - what's up with that?
So with about three months to go, with Ted Stevens' indictment dominating the Senate news, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous May diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
Congressman Allen wants to hear what changes YOU want to see in this country, and he's going to buy you dinner to boot! He will be appearing throughout the state in a series of Community Suppers in August, and the first set begins next week in Sanford/Springvale, Bath, Saco and Windham. Please call or email the organizer in charge of each supper if you want to attend, want to help out, or -- most importantly -- want to come in to our offices and help invite the whole community!
The politician who dealt the deadliest blow to the middle is, was, and shall be remembered as Ronald Reagan. Cutting the top marginal income tax rate in half and preaching an outsider creed never before heard with such ferocity - less 'I'm an outsider going to fix Washington,' more 'I'm going to burn that motherfucker to the ground' - effectively placed long-standing agreements between the parties, such as Social Security and Medicare, on the cutting block. He was a radical by any definition of the term - many of his policies (including his much-heralded compromise with Tip O'Neill to fund Social Security) were thoroughly watered down by the Democratic Congress, but still carried a very conservative tilt.
Ronald Reagan - and his contender for worst president in American history, George W Bush - killed the middle by making the gaps between your feelings about government into chasms. They also won elections.
The Supreme Court ruled today that Democrat-Turned-Indie Herb Hoffman did not obtain the legal amount of signatures to have his name placed on the November Ballot.
From the Great State of OREGON (home of the Other Portland):
Is this Bill in Portland Maine that I see before me, the handle toward my hand? Come, let me clutch thee...
But wait! NO! It’s not Bill in Portland! It’s Naismith's Very Special 50-State Diary, #25 in a series between now and the election, celebrating the halfway point and drawing attention to itself by looking at the GREAT STATE OF MAINE! State, Federal, Innies, Outies and the whole dang clambake!
Focus on Maine starts in There’s Moreville...[Swoosh!!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!!]
Not satisfied with simply lying that the Employee Free Choice Act takes away workers rights to a secret vote (it does not, as I have noted here: Employees have the right to request a secret-ballot vote if their employer recognizes a union based on union authorization cards. Under the NLRB's ruling in Dana Corp., 351 N.L.R.B. No. 28 (2007), employees can file a petition for decertification with the NLRB to obtain a secret-ballot election, provided that the petition for decertification is filed within 45 days after the employees are publicly notified of the "recognition" of the union.), an anti-union group from away, Employee Freedom.org, has begun running a radio spot here in Maine that compares labor unions to the Mafia.
Given what happened yesterday, I feel it's important I repost my earlier diary on who are the GOOD Democratic challengers when it comes to FISA. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. (For the Senate, I'm only including those who voted against cloture yesterday for the bill.) They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
In the midst of a hot summer day, with the next Federal election still 15 months off, a few residents of the Magnolia State sought to influence a senate campaign 2,000 miles away.
On that day, 30 June 2007, the following 26 people from Mississippi donated $56,400 to Susan Collins' re-election bid:
On the heels of Mike Lux putting the race between Rep. Tom Allen and Susan Collins as the 4th most important this cycle and with Collins holding only a 7 point lead in a recent poll (with Collins less than 50% for the first time), the DSCC has released this viral ad:
Knocking down the myth that Susan Collins is a moderate will be the hardest thing about this campaign, especially since the media in Maine seems intent on continuing to promote it. Ads like this help, and I urge you to help circulate it to those you konw with connections to the Pine Tree State. Thanks.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
We all know that Senator Susan Collins is no friend of progressive politics. With Holy Joe at her side, however, she is trying to create the appearance of being a moderate. So much for that image (which we all know is an illusion). The Maine Senator said today, at a hearing of the Senate's committee on homeland security and government affairs, that she is opposed to a proposal to ban large institutional investors from investing in commodities, a proposal floated by her own BFF Sen. Joe Lieberman. Give that she is in a tight race with Tom Allen, with recent poll numbers showing Collins vulnerable, tacking to the right of Joe Lieberman can only help unseat her...
In light of recent reports in the New York Times and the BBC Jonathan Kaplan has this in today's Portland Press Herald reporting on Rep. Tom Allen's renwed criticism of Susan Collins' work as chair of the Senate committee tasked with overseeing all Federal contracts:
Rep. Tom Allen, D-Maine, on Friday used the recent reports to renew his accusation that Republican Sen. Susan Collins did not conduct sufficient oversight of private contractors providing services to U.S. troops in Iraq when she chaired the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee from 2003 through 2006.
"Sen. Collins should have been doing investigations, holding hearings and calling contractors on the carpet," Allen said in a phone interview that his campaign initiated. "These horror stories would be very much minimized if she had done her job."
Yep, so at this point the sheer mass of polling data is such that it is time for me to tiptoe back into the water. The fact that school has let out for the summer (though I am teaching summer school) helps out, as well.
So today, the Following the Polls series that I began back in 2006 makes its permanent return. It will start as a weekly series (Friday seems to be the logical day), and then it will become daily once we get past Labor Day.
And, week one of the series sees a big polling week, as there are 35 separate races that were polled this week. Head past the flip for all the numerical goodness.
