Here are the ONLY 3 scenarios in the GOP primaries [w/ POLL]

So, with only a couple weeks out before Iowa and NH, there seems to be only 3 possibilites for the first 2 ontests on the Republican side.

1. Romney wins Iowa, and wins NH.

2. Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney hangs on and wins NH.

3. Huckabee wins Iowa, McCain wins NH.

after the break I'll look at what these scenarios entail.

These are the only 3 possibilites because Romney and Huckabee are far ahead of the rest of the field in polling averages in Iowa.  In NH, Romney has had a lead for several months but McCain is rising and is right on his heels in some polls.

This is much less up in the air in terms of overall possibilities compared to our side, which is basically,
Clinton-Clinton
Edwards-Clinton
Edwards-Edwards
Edwards-Obama
Obama-Obama
Obama-Clinton

based on how our 3 frontrunners end up in Iowa.

For option 1. on the Republican side, a Romney sweep of Iowa and NH,

-=Romney will win Michigan.  This will put him in good position for SC, but he definitely won't be a lock down there.
-=McCain will probably be done, if he can't win NH.  He's a 'moderate' candidate, and so is Romney.  There is no way he can get over the top in SC if he loses NH.  He may be urged to stay in the race even with no money, just so that he's the establishment go-to guy, but victories by Romney in Iowa, NH, and Michigan may cause the economic conservatives to coalesce around him.
-=Giuliani will most likely fall even further in Florida and be done.
-=Huckabee and Thompson's last stand will be SC.  Thompson might be gone even earlier if he doesn't finish 3rd in Iowa.  (He's in 6th in NH).

For option 2, Huckabee wins Iowa and Romney wins NH,

-=Huckabee will go into SC with a big lead.  
-=Thompson will probably go home even before SC comes up.
-=McCain will be done.  Huckabee will have momentum going into SC and so will Romney.  It will really be a 2-man race at that point.
-=Giuliani will stay in until super tuesday but he'll basically be done. He'll be in 3rd in Florida, and nationally will have slipped to at least 3rd if Huckabee and Romney have victories.

For option 3, Huckabee wins Iowa and McCain wins NH,

-=Romney will basically be done, dropping all that money in Iowa and NH and being governor of a neighboring state and losing.
-=McCain will go into SC with a lot of momentum, and it will be a 2-man race between McCain and Huckabee.
-=Huckabee will probably go into SC as the frontrunner.  Thompson may make his last stand in SC but will probably pull out before then.
-=Giuliani may still be alive in Florida in this scenario.  With Romney losing the first 2 contests and basically being finished, his votes will go to Giuliani and McCain.  You could see a 3-man race develop nationally between Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani.

I really don't see any other possibilities.  I don't think Thompson can get past Huckabee or Romney for 2nd in Iowa, and I don't think there's enough room for Thomspon in SC to make a big splash if he finishes no higher than 3rd in Iowa and no higher than 4th in NH.  

Paul will be in the race through Super Tuesday, he's already announced, and he could make an impact in the first 2 races basically by killing some of the frontrunners by finishing ahead of them in either of the two states.  He's got a shot at making shockwaves by finishing ahead of Thompson, Giuliani, and McCain in Iowa.  And McCain has to be sweating bullets that Paul will take enough independents' votes to prevent him from  getting over the top of Romney in NH.  Giuliani is retreating in NH , and if Paul beats him in NH that Florida strategy will be D.O.A.